Democrats will keep their tight grip on the New York State Assembly, say political experts.
“It would take a major crisis for the Democrats to lose the Assembly,” Jeff Stonecash, Syracuse University political scientist. “It’s very unlikely.”
The Democrats have controlled the Assembly since 1975. Now Democrats hold 99 of the Assembly’s 150 seats. All of the Assembly seats are up for election on Nov. 6.
The outcomes in individual Assembly districts, say political experts, will be influenced by redistricting, a perception of growing effectiveness, the retirement of many incumbents and scandals surrounding some incumbents.
Redistricting in 2012 had little effect on the overall Assembly, said political experts.
The Assembly did not gain or lose any seats from redistricting. But many districts’ boundaries were redrawn, changing the make-up of constituents. Many of the new boundaries made the seats safer for incumbents by including more voters registered with the incumbent’s party.
With their new boundaries, candidates like incumbent Democrat Sam Roberts in the 119th State Assembly District need to know new voters, say political experts. “He should work hard to introduce himself,” SU professor Stonecash said. “If he does that he shouldn’t have a problem.”
The public’s perception of the Assembly’s effectiveness has grown, as it managed to pass some controversial legislation such as same-sex marriage bill, say some political analysts.
Grant Reeher, an SU political scientist, cited higher approval ratings for the Assembly. “For the first time in a while, there is a feeling that the arrow is pointing in the right direction,” Reeher said. ‘That’s a big change and something that makes our own state’s politics look quite different from what is going on at the national level.”
Retirement is changing the Assembly, with 18 incumbents leaving at the end of their terms. That’s an unusually high number of retirements. But for the Democrats, said Reeher, “Their majority is so large that those retirements, even if the party can’t defend all 18 open seats, won’t be likely to effect things overall.”
But scandal looms over three Assembly members. In the 53rd State Assembly District, incumbent Vito Lopez, D-Brooklyn, was accused of sexually harassing two women in his office and made a private settlement of their complaints with him. He is running for re-election without an opponent.
In the 80th State Assembly District, incumbent Naomi Rivera, D-Bronx, was accused of hiring two of her boyfriends, her son, and his girlfriend onto the state payroll. She lost a primary to Mark Gjonaj of the Bronx. Rivera will be on the ballot as the Working Families Party candidate.
In the 55th State Assembly District, the incumbent did win the primary. Within nine months, William Boyland Jr., D-Brooklyn, was accused twice of federal bribery. Boyland faced six opponents.
The revelations of the scandals are helpful for voters in making informed decisions, suggested Rhonda Hungerford, co-president of the League of Women Voters in Syracuse. “Luckily, these scandals do get exposed. So that’s good they need to be exposed,” said. “And people need to vote for the best candidate.”
(Katya Rivera is a senior with dual majors in political science and broadcast journalism.)
-30-
