Voters will send fewer New Yorkers to the U.S. House Representatives this November than in recent American history.
That’s because an aggressive round of redistricting in 2010 cost the state two seats in the House. But the state won’t suffer greatly from loss of clout in Congress with the fewer seats, say political experts. Still, with the redrawn boundaries, some districts may shift from their traditional party base – going, for example, from Republican to Democrat – because of changing voter enrollment, say political analysts.
“The loss of two seats is not inconsequential. But in my view the big difference is that it does force a more dramatic redrawing of congressional district lines and that places — for better or worse — more incumbents at risk,” said Robert McClure, a political scientist at Syracuse University.
Based on the 2010 Census, the state’s population grew slower than that of other states. That caused the cut in New York’s number of House seats from 29 to 27. This makes New York’s smallest Congressional delegation in more than 200 years. New York and Ohio were the only states to lose more than one seat.
The general election is Nov. 6.
Despite the changes from redistricting, the New York Congressional delegation remains overwhelmingly Democratic. Of the 27 seats, 20 are held by Democrats and seven by Republicans.
Over the years, New York state has become slightly more Democratic, SU political scientist McClure said. But, he added, party affiliation is no longer a dominant predictor of how voters will cast their ballots. Fewer people vote a straight ticket for a single party anymore, said McClure, and more voters are unaffiliated with a party.
“Instead of being certain about 90 percent or more of these districts, we’re now uncertain about a greater percentage,” he said. “That’s what happens.”
Weaker party loyalty and the redistricted boundaries are turning some districts into what political analysts call “toss-ups” that could swing to either party.
In the upcoming election, at least four New York districts are considered to be “pure toss-ups” that could go to either party, according to The Rothenberg Political Report, a prominent nonpartisan newsletter analyzing political races.
Here’s a look at the four districts considered to be toss-ups:
The 18th Congressional District, formerly the 19th Congressional District
U.S. Rep Nan Hayworth, R-Bedford, is defending her seat from Democratic challenger Sean Patrick Maloney, former senior West Wing adviser to President Bill Clinton. Maloney was the youngest person ever to serve as the President’s White House Staff Secretary.
This 18th Congressional District is located in the northern suburbs of New York City, encompassing Westchester County and part of Rockwood County. There are 398,487 registered voters in the district, according to the Board of Elections. Of those, 35 percent are registered Democrats, and 34 percent are registered Republicans.
The 19th Congressional District
U.S. Rep Chris Gibson, R-Kinderhook, will face a tough election because redistricting undercut his new district in the mid-Hudson valley. The 19th Congressional District transformed from a Republican-leaning district, to a swing district that Democrats think they might have a shot at picking up.
Democrat Julian Schreibman, a former federal prosecutor, will oppose Gibson.
The 19th Congressional District, which lies north of New York City, has 420,934 total registered voters. Of those, 31 percent are registered Democrats, and 34 percent are registered Republicans.
The 21st Congressional District, formerly the 23rd Congressional District
U.S. Rep Bill Owens, D-Plattsburgh, and Republican candidate Matt Doheny are in a fierce rematch for the 21st Congressional District seat in November. In 2010, Owens beat Doheny, a businessman and former professor.
The new district includes all of northern New York bordering most of Vermont, as well as the border with Quebec and almost all of the state’s Capitol District. It has 396,310 registered voters. Of those, 29 percent are registered Democrats, and 44 percent are registered Republicans.
The 27th Congressional District
U.S. Rep Kathy Hochul, D-Amherst, is considered by analysts to be one of the most vulnerable incumbents in New York. In 2010, Hochul, a former county clerk, gained recognition for winning an upset race in the most Republican district in the state. This year, her district is even more Republican and opponent Republican Chris Collins, former Erie County executive, is looking to sweep the vote.
The 27th Congressional District is located in the Buffalo area and has 440,085 registered voters. Of those, 32 percent are registered Democrats, and 40 percent are registered Republicans.
These toss-up districts are the end result of redrawn Congressional boundaries — a complex and controversial process. The purpose of redistricting is to ensure that areas of the country with the highest population have the most representation in Congress. It occurs every 10 years, after the Census releases information about population fluctuations, said Cathy McCully, chief of the Census Redistricting Data Office.
But these shifts in population are nothing new, and certainly nothing to be concerned about, said SU political scientist Kristi Andersen. Population fluctuations simply means it’s harder to predict a district’s election outcome, said Andersen.
“If you’ve had a district that’s been the same for most of a decade, you have a record of the voting. Generally speaking, analysts can predict the normal vote in that district,” Andersen said. “Now you have all these new districts in which people are combined in different ways and the predictions are not as safe.”
(Liz Sawyer is a junior majoring in newspaper and online journalism.)
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