CONCORD, N.H. — The regulars at the Brown Bag Deli drank their coffee huddled in a tight corner on Thursday morning. The rest of the small sandwich shop, which can comfortably hold 15, was packed with about 50 John McCain supporters.
“You guys are standing in front of the coffee,” said one thirsty customer as he pushed aside the interlopers.
For the Brown Bag regulars and at other New Hampshire coffee shops, the campaign for Republican McCain was about the only presidential appetizer being served up on Thursday. The other candidates were still in Iowa. McCain, who has all but skipped the corn fields for the Granite State, arrived in New Hampshire well before caucusing began in Iowa on Thursday evening.
At the Brown Bag, Joe Lieberman, the Independent Democratic senator from Connecticut, rallied the coffee crowd for McCain. “I don’t think there’s been a presidential candidate like him since Teddy Roosevelt left the Whitehouse,” Lieberman said as the crowd chanted McCain’s name.
McCain is focusing his time and resources on New Hampshire because he gained considerable support here in 2000 with a primary win, experts say. His focus on the state highlights the difference between the primary and the Iowa Caucus. Often, experts say, New Hampshire voters react to results in Iowa, choosing different candidates from the Iowans’. As a result, some candidates who know they have more support in New Hampshire chose to put fewer resources into the Iowa Caucus.
At the University of Iowa, for example, political scientist Tracy Osborn acknowledged that McCain has been a rare figure in Iowa. McCain, she said, has done very little in the state because he knows he has more support in New Hampshire. “McCain is really running in New Hampshire, but he’s barely doing anything here,” she said. “A lot of the
Republicans are really focusing on South Carolina and New Hampshire.”
For Republicans, Osborn expects Iowa and New Hampshire to have contrary results. “It seems inevitable that there are going to be totally different results from each place,” she said. Republican Mike Huckabee, a devout Southern Baptist, may have a good showing in Iowa. But he won’t do well in New Hampshire, Osborn said. “I don’t think New Hampshire has that kind of religious background,” she said.
At the University of New Hampshire, political scientist Dante Scala predicts McCain is the Republican to beat in the Granite State. “There is only one Republican with momentum right now and that’s John McCain,” he said.
During the summer, when McCain was struggling with funding his campaign, he had to pick and choose where he was going to focus his efforts. He chose New Hampshire because he knew he could be successful there, Scala said. “New Hampshire was an obvious choice for him,” he said. “It was never going to be Iowa for him because he didn’t campaign there in 2000 and if people remember you at all, they’re going to remember that you skipped them last time.”
Republican Mitt Romney, former governor of neighboring Massachusetts, is in trouble in New Hampshire, Scala said. Romney needs to do well in Iowa in order to get the publicity boost he needs to gain favor in New Hampshire. Otherwise, McCain and Huckabee could take the lead here, he said.
New Hampshire voters pay close attention to the Iowa Caucus results, Scala said. They are influenced by what some political scientists call the “Iowa bounce,” or press and media reports from Iowa that make their way to New Hampshire. New Hampshire voters often go a different route than Iowa voters in the end, he said.
“Sometimes New Hampshire does something contrary to Iowa,” he said. “New Hampshire voters can be reactive to what happens in Iowa.” If Huckabee wins in Iowa, many New Hampshire voters will vote for McCain or Romney because they don’t want an Evangelical Christian as their choice for president, Scala said. As for the Democrats, the winner of the Iowa Caucus will most likely do well in New Hampshire, Scala said.
“Whoever wins Iowa will come to New Hampshire competitive,” he said. “They will have an edge here.”
Looking back in history, the New Hampshire primary has the potential to catapult a candidate to later success. In 1992, former president and then-Arkansas governor Bill Clinton finished last in the Iowa Caucus. He had a much better showing in New Hampshire and went on to take the Whitehouse. The same thing happened with former president George H. W. Bush, in 1988.
Back at the Brown Bag Deli, Chris Callahan, a Republican who ran for state comptroller in New York, said McCain is still benefiting from his previous work here. “New Hampshire obviously was very good to him in 2000,” Callahan said. “He’s very well-liked here despite the former-governor next door.”
Also in the crowd was TJ Costello. He came to New Hampshire to support McCain from Austin, Texas. He spent the last week knocking on doors across the state and talking to likely voters.
“There’s a buzz out there for him,” he said. “You can really feel it.”
(Andrew Restuccia, a newspaper and religion and society major, is covering the New Hampshire primary for The Sun of Lowell, Mass.)
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