With voters choosing all their state Assembly members this fall, Democrats are likely to tighten their grip on state government in Albany, say political experts.
“The Democrats’ lock on the Assembly is so huge that there’s no way, even in an ordinary year, that’s going to get overturned,” said Helen Desfosses, a professor of public administration and policy at the State University of New York at Albany. She was summing up a common view — and the political math — of the state’s lower chamber.
All 150 Assembly seats and 62 state Senate seats are up for election on Nov. 4. In the Senate, the Republicans’ two-seat advantage may be challenged, experts say. But it is highly unlikely, experts agree, that the Democrats will lose control in the lower house.
Consider the numbers:
- The Democrats hold 103 of the Assembly’s 150 seats, a sizeable advantage.
- The Republicans hold 42 seats.
- Both Syracuse-area district seats are held by Democrats: William Magnarelli in the 120th district and Albert Stirpe in the 121st. Republican Kristen Rounds opposes Magnarelli, while Republican David Knapp opposes Stirpe.
- And that 61-seat deficit for the Republicans is just too large to conquer, say political scientists who follow the state elections.
Political scientists are expecting a larger-than-usual voter turnout in this election. Democrat Barack Obama, the first African-American candidate nominated by a major party, has energized a combination of the party’s base and a swath of new voters. The Republicans have countered by nominating Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, a social conservative, as the vice presidential candidate.
SUNY-Albany political scientist Desfosses expects New York voters to turn out in droves for Democrat Obama. So the Democrats’ margin in the state Assembly may even widen, Desfosses said. “The odds of anybody even eroding that Democratic plurality are zero to none,” Desfosses said.
Democrat control of the Assembly is longstanding. The state party has had a majority since 1975, and has dominated the lower house ever since, said Jeffrey Stonecash, a political scientist at Syracuse University.
“They have gradually — in a very focused way — built up their seats by raising a lot of money, helping people with campaigns,” Stonecash said. “The state’s been drifting Democratic, so now they’ve got this huge lead.”
The two chambers of state legislature haven’t been unified under one party since 1965. If the Senate swings away from the Republicans, that will change. If the Senate joined the Assembly with Democratic majorities, that would give Democrats control of the centers of power in Albany. Gov. David Paterson is also a Democrat.
But don’t expect an overhaul of public policy shaped by liberalism, SU political scientist Stonecash said.
“The automatic presumption a lot of people will have is that the Democrats will enact a slew of liberal legislation,” Stonecash said. “I doubt it. Because the state’s already very liberal, and the Republicans have responded and accommodated that and moved to relatively liberal positions. We already tax and spend more than any other state.”
With a unified statehouse, the Democrats may push legislation to extend health care to more families and to lower property taxes, Stonecash said.
Grant Reeher, also an SU political scientist, credits some of the GOP’s troubles in New York to the national mood. The election comes at time with the GOP in a downswing nationally as President George W. Bush prepares to leave office, said Reeher.
“There is deep dissatisfaction with the Bush administration,” Reeher said. “Popularity ratings for the president are extremely low. There is a general concern that the country is headed in the wrong direction.”
Republican presidential candidate John McCain has stemmed some of that tide, Reeher said. But lower-profile politicians might get caught in the wake of the party’s negative image — and lose state and local elections.
Said Reeher, “It’s not a particularly good year for the Republicans, on paper.”
(Andy McCullough is a senior newspaper journalism major.)
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