For the first time in as long as they can remember, Democrats in DeWitt — a Syracuse suburb of about 25,000 — are celebrating a big change.
“The town of DeWitt just went blue,” Diane Dwire, chairwoman of the Onondaga County Democratic Committee, said in a recent interview.
“There are 37 more registered Democrats than Republicans.”
DeWitt signals a trend across Onondaga County, where Democrats are gaining ground and threatening to overtake Republicans in the inner suburbs.
Democrats say it’s the result of Syracuse residents moving into nearby suburbs, new voters going Democratic and Republicans moving away from their party’s social platform. The Republicans say enrollment isn’t as important as results — and they predict they’ll get a strong turnout from their base at the election Nov. 4.
Syracuse University political scientist Jeffrey Stonecash has tracked area enrollment figures from the county’s Board of Elections dating back to 1950. “The county was once heavily Republican and it’s now almost dead-even,” Stonecash said.
Here’s how the numbers have changed:
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In the mid-1950s, 70 percent of registered voters in Onondaga County were Republican, 20 percent were Democrat and 10 percent were independent or with third parties.
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This year, 34 percent are Republican and 34 percent are Democrat.The remaining 32 percent includes independent and third-party voters.
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In April 2007, Democrats outnumbered Republicans by 134 voters.
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In April 2008, Democrats outnumbered Republicans by 400.
The county will tally voters again after this year’s election.
That change is happening because Republicans in Central New York and across the Northeast are being alienated by their party’s positions at the national level, said Stonecash, a registered Democrat who has done public opinion polls for both parties for more than two decades.
“I don’t think that the Republican Party here is as comfortable with their positions on social issues,” Stonecash said. “New York is not as conservative as the rest of the country.”
New voters are increasingly enrolling as Democrats, Stonecash said. In 2003 and 2004, the Democratic Party claimed one in three new voters, according to Stonecash’s figures. The Republican Party attracted one in four.
For the Democrats, county chairwoman Dwire credited the party’s focus on getting new voters registered. “Any place we go we will take registration forms,” Dwire said.
On the growth of the Democratic Party in DeWitt, Dwire said the largely Democratic population of the city is expanding into the nearby suburbs.
“You see people from the city moving into the towns,” she said.
In Syracuse, the Democrats hold about half of the city’s active voters. But the city’s population has been dropping. In the last two decades, the city has lost about 15 percent of its people, according to the U.S. Census. In contrast, the Census reports, towns like DeWitt and Salina have lost only three percent of their residents.
Salina will likely be the next town where enrolled Democrats outnumber Republicans, Democratic county chairwoman Dwire said. Republicans make up 35 percent of the registered voters there, compared to the Democrats’ 32 percent, according to the county Board of Elections.
But Onondaga Republicans reject despair over the enrollment shifts.
Election results are more important than party enrollment, says Charles Duprey, political director for the county’s Republican Committee. “I’m not too distraught on enrollment,” he said. “Almost every major elected official is a registered Republican.”
For example, County Executive Joanie Mahoney is a Republican. In 2007, she won by a 22-point margin. And in the County Legislature, Republicans also hold 11 of the 19 seats.
In the presidential election, Republicans are looking for victory helped by the popularity of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as their choice for vice president, county GOP political director Duprey said. Since the Republican National Convention in St. Paul, Minn., his office has had a sharp increase in requests for lawn signs and offers to help campaign, Duprey said.
“She’s excited and energized our base,” he said.
Back in DeWitt, the Democrats are looking to their new majority for another advantage. In the town board election, they have targeted a vacant seat. If their candidate, Lorene McCoy Dadey, wins the spot, if would give the Democrats 4-3 control of the board, including the supervisor’s seat.
Linda Ervin has been chairwoman of the DeWitt Democratic Committee for three years. “There’s certainly been a gradual shift, and we’re pleased by it,” she said.
(Ed Jacovino is a senior with dual majors in newspaper journalism and anthropology.)
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