For the first time in more than 40 years, Democrats are poised to take control of the New York state Senate and most of the state’s government.
“There are a lot of indicators that it could be a very good year for Democrats. But I think it’s sometimes too easy to make the leap. We still don’t know what’s going to happen,” said Robert Ward, a political expert with the Rockefeller Institute of Government in Albany. He has studied state government for 20 years. The Democrats, he said haven’t had the opportunity of a Democratic takeover in the state Senate since 1966.
The election is Nov. 4.
As indicators to a possible Democratic majority in the state Senate, Ward points to the math: State Senate Republicans hold a slim-lead in seats over Democrats. Several Republicans not seeking re-election and more New York voters registering with the Democratic Party.
Consider these numbers:
And that two-seat majority is endangered for three reasons:
- In an already-blue state, the Democratic Party also has been increasing its lead in registered voters. Democrats now number nearly 5.44 million voters, compared to nearly 3 million Republicans, according to the New York Board of Elections. And the Democratic enrollment has been growing while the Republicans’ is declining slightly. The state elections board reports a 2-percent increase — or 102, 559 new voters — for Democrats over 2007. But the Republicans registered an .05 percent — or 1,526 voters — decline since 2007.If Democrats win the state Senate, they would control all three levels of state government: the governorship, the Assembly and the Senate.Political scientist Grant Reeher of Syracuse University suggests that such a control would affect the types of policies passed in state government. “A single party could shift the overall tint of policy making to a more Democratic and Liberal shade,” said Reeher.
Of the 62 state Senate seats up for election, two are local seats: the 49th and 50th state Senate Districts. Democrats are looking to maintain control of the 49th district seat now held by Sen. David Valesky. Republican Jim DiStefano is challenging Valesky for that seat.
And Republicans are also looking to keep the seat held by Sen. John DeFransisco in the 50th district. Democratic challenger Carol Mulcahy is looking to claim that seat for Democrats.
Political scientist Bruce Shefrin of Lemoyne College says neither of those local state Senate races are part of the equation for a possible Democratic takeover in the state Senate.
“I think they’re both are secure. I can’t imagine an attack on DeFransisco. He has a high approval rating among Republicans,” said Shefrin. “Despite Republicans trying to target Valesky in the past, I don’t think Democrats are going to let Valesky slip.”
Despite the helpful math for the Democrats, political analyst Ward, of the Rockefeller Institute, isn’t so quick to write off the chance that Republicans will keep control of the state Senate. It all boils down to what happens on Election Day, he said.
“You don’t know what the turn out will be,” Ward said. “You don’t know what the weather will be.”
(Racquel Asa is a graduate student in broadcast journalism.)
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