[audiohttps://democracywise.syr.edu/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/Story3A-Senate-Story-Kineke2.mp3]
Two seats.
That’s the Democrats’ slimmest of slim majorities in the United States Senate. But many political signs suggest that will change with this election.
Political scientist Danny Hayes of Syracuse University says Democrats will benefit from Republican scandals, retirements, and dissatisfaction with the Republicans in general. Hayes says all of that should help the Democrats extend their Senate majority. The only question is, by how much?
“Reading the political tea leaves, it looks like there’s a good possibility that they would end up with 55 or 56 seats. But a lot of these races are very close, so it’s difficult to say.” (Danny Hayes, SU political scientist)
The Senate math favors the Democrats. Just look at the numbers:
- The Democrats hold 51 of the 100 Senate seats, giving them a two-vote majority.
- 35 seats are up for re-election this year.
- Republicans have more seats at risk, with 23 up for re-election compared to 12 for Democrats.
- Of those 23 Republican senators, five are retiring — that means there’s no incumbent. And incumbents are re-elected more than 90 percent of the time.
New York’s Senate seats are not a part of the math. Neither of the incumbents- Democrats Hillary Clinton and Chuck Schumer– are up for re-election this year.
The hot states in the elections now? There’s Alaska, where six-term Republican Ted Stevens’ court case on corruption charges could help make Mark Begich the state’s first Democratic senator in 50 years.
Jennifer Duffy is a senate elections specialist with The Cook Political Report, a non-partisan analytical publication in Washington. She says the election could be decided by a 12-member jury in Washington.
“It comes down to this — the trial starts Monday, and the election moves from Alaska to a federal courtroom in D. C. And this election may well be decided by 12 residents of the District of Columbia.” (Jennifer Duffy, senate editor, The Cook Political Report)
Then there’s Louisiana, the one place where political experts say the Democrats could actually lose a seat. Incumbent Mary Landrieu won her last two terms by close margins.
Now thanks to Hurricane Katrina, many voters who supported Landrieu have left New Orleans and the state. Duffy of The Cook Report says this made Louisiana the only state to become more Republican in the 2006 election. But Landrieu’s fundraising efforts and attacks on her opponent have been far more effective this time around.
“If she’d run a campaign like this in 2002, we might not be talking about this race in 2008.” (Jennifer Duffy)
And Virginia is also now a possible win for the Democrats. In Virginia, Republican Senator John Warner is retiring and that leaves a race between two former state governors. Duffy of The Cook Report says she’s no longer bothering to follow Virginia closely — because Democrat Mark Warner seems to have things locked up.
“It’s over, because Mark Warner is the stronger candidate. He also can reach into more Republican leaning areas, which he should, he governed as a moderate.” (Jennifer Duffy)
But the Democrats want more than a few new seats. Nine is their magic number: Nine new seats means 60 seats total. And 60 votes are needed to end a filibuster, a rule that lets the minority party stop a bill from being voted on.
So right now, SU political scientist Danny Hayes says, the Democrats need to convince nine GOP senators to vote with them every time there is a partisan deadlock over a bill.
“We have a political system that is essentially built to thwart policymaking. You have conflict between the president and the Congress. You have conflict within the Congress itself between the parties. And so, while the House has been able to pass several things, those things have been stopped in the Senate.” (Danny Hayes)
It’s unlikely that the Democrats will get to 60 this election with many races so close, say political experts. But as SU political scientist Hayes says, every seat they add is one less vote they need from across the aisle on crucial issues.
The election is November 4th.
For Democracywise, Zachary Kineke.
(Zachary Kineke is a senior with dual majors in political science and broadcast journalism.)
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