Sens. David Valesky and John DeFrancisco are up for re-election in the 49th and 50th Senate Districts surrounding Syracuse.
And if history repeats itself, they have a good chance of returning to Albany.
Incumbents, like Valesky and DeFrancisco, win re-election slightly less than 90 percent of the time, according to studies done by Common Cause, a non-partisan advocacy group in Washington, D.C.
Danny Hayes is a political scientist at the Maxwell School of Citizenship and Public Affairs at Syracuse University who specializes in American politics and how candidates are perceived by the public and media. He expressed strong doubts that either Democrat Valesky or Republican DeFrancisco would be unseated on Election Day, Nov. 4.
“This isn’t really a competitive race,” Hayes said.
Challengers lack the name recognition of incumbents, which results in incumbents keeping their seats around 90 percent of the time, said Hayes. Incumbents, he added, have that recognition as a big advantage. “People know who he or she is. They have name recognition. They’ve been on television,” Hayes said.
Voters have a tendency to go with name recognition, Hayes said. He calls this an “information shortcut.”
“If you don’t know much about the politics, which most people on a local basis don’t, they’ll go with the person they have the impression of, because usually that’s a fairly positive view,” Hayes said.
For New York state senate districts, Onondaga County is split between the 49th and 50th Senate Districts. Here is a breakdown of the race in each district:
49TH STATE SENATE DISTRICT:
The 49th District includes six of Onondaga County’s cities: Cicero, De Witt, Manlius, Fabius, Tully and Spafford. The incumbent, Democrat David Valesky, was elected as the senator for the 49th District in 2004. He is a member of the Senate Standing Committees on Agriculture; Banks; Energy and Telecommunications; Health; Higher Education; Tourism, Recreation and Sports Development; and Transportation.
Scott Butler, Valesky’s campaign spokesman, said that Valesky is not resting on the incumbent’s advantages. The campaign is sending out mailers and making ads for television and radio. “We are still running for the senate and we still need people to vote,” Butler said.
Valesky is being challenged by Jim DiStefano, a lawyer from Fayetteville, N.Y. DiStefano has previous government experience as the state assistant attorney general from 1968 to 1981.
DiStefano acknowledges he’s at a disadvantage in the race. “It is a big, big steep uphill fight for any person who is challenged an incumbent,” he said. Unless an incumbent does something really bad , he said, it is very difficult to unseat him or her. But, he said, he wants to offer voters a choice.
“I hope they will support me. And if not, they will return the same person back to Albany,” DiStefano said.
50TH STATE SENATE DISTRICT:
The rest of Onondaga County — including Pompey, Skaneateles and Clay — is in the 50th District. The incumbent, Republican John DeFrancisco, has held the seat since 1992. He is the chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee; deputy majority leader for Intergovernmental Affairs; and a member of the Banks, Codes, Energy and Telecommunications Committee; Health Tourism, Recreation, and Sports Development Committee.
DeFrancisco is being challenged by Democrat Carol Mulcahy. Mulcahy ran against DeFrancisco in 2006 and lost by 26,000 votes. Mulcahy does not have a Web site or a listed phone number.
DeFrancisco’s campaign spokeswoman Carolyn Keleher expressed optimism about the senator’s chances for re-election. His constituents approve of the senator support his campaign, she said. “I’ve been to a lot of events and talking to people, they seem pretty happy with us,” she said. “We’re pretty confident. I think this year is looking good for us.”
(Susanna McElligott is a senior with dual majors in newspaper journalism and art history.)
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