In a tight struggle, Democrats are favored to keep their majority in the U.S. Senate, say political analysts.
“My gut right now is that the Democrats will keep their majority,” said political scientist Grant Reeher of Syracuse University . The reason, Reeher said, is because President Barack Obama appears to be pulling ahead of Republican candidate Mitt Romney.
So let’s take a look at the Senate numbers:
● Now the Democrats hold the majority with 53 seats, including independents who caucus with them. Republicans have 47 seats.
● 33 of the 100 seats are up for re-election.
● Of the 33 seats, 23 are incumbents, including 15 Democrats.
That number of incumbents is a help to Democrats because incumbents have strong advantages. Since 2000, nearly 85 percent of incumbents have been re-elected in the Senate, according to the non-partisan Center for Responsive Politics in Washington, D.C.
A key race that could determine whether the Senate is red or blue is the Massachusetts contest between Republican Sen. Scott Brown and Democratic challenger Elizabeth Warren.
“The one that’s crucial, in my mind, to Republicans’ success is can Brown hang on in Massachusetts,” said Robert D. McClure, SU political scientist.
But Scott has little incumbency advantage, said McClure, because he is a first-term Senator. “In the beginning there’s some advantage but not as much,” said McClure. Then it gets to be a big advantage.”
Scott won the seat in a special election in 2010 after Sen. Ted Kennedy, a Democrat, died in office. Scott’s victory broke the Democrats’ more than four-decades hold on that seat.
Who has majority control of the Senate is important, said McClure, because it affects the ability of the president to enact his agenda. The focus, said McClure, is on all three national elections — the presidency, the Senate and the House.
“The question is when this is all over in 2012,” said McClure, “are we going to have all three D’s lined up or are we going to have all three Republicans lined up?”
(Chet Davis is a senior with dual majors in broadcast journalism and political science.)
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